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So how do we proceed? Intuitively, there are a few potential strategies

The optimal strategy will clearly require
finding the right balance between the two, walking the
tightrope between looking too much and not enough.
If your aim is finding the veiy best applicant, settling for
nothing less, it’s clear that as you go through the inteiyiew
process you shouldn’t even consider hiring somebody who
isn’t the best you’ve seen so far. However, simply being the
best yet isn’t enough for an offer; the very first applicant,
for example, will of course be the best yet by definition.
More generally, it stands to reason that the rate at which
we encounter “best yet” applicants will go down as we
proceed in our interviews. For instance, the second
applicant has a 50/50 chance of being the best we’ve yet
seen, but the fifth applicant only has a 1-in-5 chance of
being the best so far, the sixth has a 1-in-6 chance, and so
on. As a result, best-yet applicants will become steadily
more impressive as the search continues (by definition,
again, they’re better than all those who came before)—but
they will also become more and more infrequent.
Okay, so we know that taking the first best-yet applicant
we encounter (a.k.a. the first applicant, period) is rash. If
there are a hundred applicants, it also seems hasty to make
an offer to the next one who’s best-yet, just because she
was better than the first. So how do we proceed?
Intuitively, there are a few potential strategies. For
instance, making an offer the third time an applicant
trumps everyone seen so far—or maybe the fourth time. Or
perhaps taking the next best-yet applicant to come along
after a long “drought”—a long streak of poor ones.
But as it happens, neither of these relatively sensible
strategies comes out on top. Instead, the optimal solution
takes the form of what we’ll call the Look-Then-Leap
Rule: You set a predetermined amount of time for
“looking”—that is, exploring your options.

in which you categorically don’t choose anyone, no matter
how impressive. After that point, you enter the “leap”
phase, prepared to instantly commit to anyone who
outshines the best applicant you saw in the look phase.
We can see how the Look-Then-Leap Rule emerges by
considering how the secretary problem plays out in the
smallest applicant pools. With just one applicant the
problem is easy to solve—hire her! With two applicants,
you have a 50/50 chance of success no matter what you
do. You can hire the first applicant (who’ll turn out to be
the best half the time), or dismiss the first and by default
hire the second (who is also best half the time).
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About Unknown

ZAKARIA AL BAZZAR, 19 yo, university student. love everything about new tech, and I'm sharing it with you :)
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